Jack Miller expects MotoGP riders to turn to the hard tyre for Sunday’s Japanese Grand Prix after the Sprint at Motegi exposed unexpected levels of tyre degradation.
The resurfaced Motegi circuit presented Michelin and the teams with a difficult challenge on Saturday, with several riders struggling to manage their tyres over the shortened race distance. The problems were particularly severe for those using the soft compound, raising fresh concerns over what could happen over the longer Grand Prix.
Francesco Bagnaia was among the biggest casualties. The Ducati rider suffered a dramatic rear tyre failure, with the tyre visibly delaminating before he was forced to retire one lap before the chequered flag.
Jorge Martin also struggled to maintain his pace on the soft. The championship contender lost more than a second on the final lap and ran wide while trying to defend his podium position from Enea Bastianini.
However, the problems were not limited to the soft compound.
Miller, one of only two riders to choose the medium rear tyre for the Sprint, reported significant blistering despite believing the compound would provide greater stability.
“I went for the medium option. It had blisters all over it,” Miller said.
Based on what he experienced, the Pramac rider believes the hard tyre will become the obvious choice for Sunday’s longer race.
“So, we’ll all be on the hard tomorrow. I can almost guarantee it,” he added.
The situation is complicated by the fact that the hard tyre has barely been considered throughout the weekend. Michelin brought a stiffer hard option with a reinforced casing, previously used at Spielberg, after concerns over the demands of Motegi’s newly resurfaced track.
However, riders had already expressed reservations about the construction based on previous experiences, meaning teams have not gathered meaningful data with it at Motegi.
That could leave teams facing a major setup gamble on Sunday. If the hard tyre becomes necessary, riders and engineers will have little information to rely on, making the morning warm-up particularly important.
Yamaha technical director Max Bartolini has already called for a longer 20-minute warm-up session to give teams more time to understand the hard compound. He warned that much of the setup information gathered throughout the weekend could become effectively useless if the hard becomes the required race tyre.
Miller believes the lack of data could turn Sunday’s race into a lottery, while even admitting that rain could make the situation easier to manage.
Still, not every rider shared the same concerns.
Several KTM riders managed their tyres without major problems during the Sprint, while race winner Marc Marquez suggested that the soft compound could remain a viable option for the Grand Prix.
Fabio Quartararo also offered a different perspective despite riding the same Yamaha as Miller. The Frenchman said he would favour the softest available option for the longer race if given the choice.
“For me, the soft will make the race, to be honest. If we have the choice, I think I will choose the soft for the race,” Quartararo said.
That leaves MotoGP facing an intriguing tyre gamble at Motegi. With the soft showing worrying signs of degradation, the medium already suffering blistering and the hard lacking meaningful track data, Sunday’s race could come down as much to tyre management and strategy as outright pace.
The warm-up will offer teams their final opportunity to gather information before the Grand Prix, with the tyre decision likely to play a major role in determining who can survive the demanding 24-lap race.
