Francesco Bagnaia has played down expectations of another dominant Japanese Grand Prix weekend, saying a top-seven finish is a more realistic target as MotoGP returns to Motegi.
The Ducati rider enjoyed one of his strongest weekends at the circuit last year, taking pole position before winning both the Sprint and the main race. However, Bagnaia does not expect to reproduce that performance this season, with changes to the track and Michelin’s tyre allocation making direct comparisons difficult.
Motegi has been resurfaced since last year, while Michelin has introduced harder tyres for this weekend. Those changes mean Bagnaia and Ducati cannot simply rely on the data from their 2025 success.
“I don’t have any expectations from this year,” Bagnaia said on Thursday. “The reality is that we need to focus, and the objective is to fight for the top seven, to be realistic.”
The Italian said understanding how the Ducati works on the new asphalt will be one of the weekend’s biggest challenges, particularly in terms of grip.
“We need to understand the new asphalt, the differences of the tyres, and see if we can maybe solve the grip issue with the new asphalt,” he explained.
Source: Autosport
Bagnaia still sees reasons for optimism. Motegi’s stop-start layout features several heavy braking zones, an area where he believes Ducati can remain competitive even if the overall gap to the front is larger than it was last year.
“It’s another good track for braking, so I think that the gap can be shorter compared to other circuits,” he said.
His cautious approach also reflects a difficult stretch of the 2026 season. Bagnaia had put together four consecutive podiums from Barcelona to Brno during the summer, but his momentum disappeared after the championship resumed at Silverstone.
He then suffered three straight DNFs before finally returning to the points at the Austrian Grand Prix.
Despite that recent inconsistency, Motegi has traditionally suited Ducati thanks to its heavy braking and acceleration demands. Bagnaia, however, believes his performance will depend heavily on how quickly the team adapts to the resurfaced circuit.
Asked if he could use last year's data as a direct reference, Bagnaia simply replied: “No, unluckily not.”
For now, the Ducati rider is keeping his target modest and focusing on building confidence through the weekend.
“The top seven is the most realistic goal,” Bagnaia said. “We work a lot to do our best, but we have to be optimistic and accept the fact that we can struggle a little.”
